Vidula Sarda @Vidula
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Understanding Technical Analysis through Candlestick Pattern
There are broadly 2 types of
analysis in the stock market:
1. Technical Analysis
2. Fundamental Analysis
We are hereby going to discuss
technical analysis in detail:
Technical Analysis: It can be defined as assessing the stocks or
investment opportunity on factors like the price of a stock, the volume of trading,
high- low prices, and such short-term factors. Technical analysts are short-term traders and are hardly interested in knowing a company’s fundamentals.
Although it is good to understand and analyze the fundamentals of companies and
then make a prudent choice of the company you want to trade in. But generally
speaking, such traders completely rely on market demand and supply factors to
trade in various stocks.
In technical analysis generally, traders hold the following assumptions:
- The market tells everything: The market generally runs on a trend. If on a fine day stock price is fluctuating beyond normal, it might be an indicator that a high-profile investor is acting on some news. If it’s a good trend and depicts growth, one should buy the stock.
- History
repeats itself: The stock market can be compared to human psychology. So it
will repeatedly tend to behave in the same way as in its past. For instance, if the
stock market is showing an upward trend, then investors will enter into buying
to be in alignment with the trend and vice versa.
Now, that we
broadly know the assumptions in the stock market, let’s talk about how to
analyze it through charts. The most popular and widely used chart is the candlestick chart. Let’s discuss that in detail.
Candlestick Chart
The candlestick chart is made of 3 components:
- Upper body: It depicts the high point the stock reached.
- Lower body: It depicts the low point the stock reached
- Central body: It depicts the open and close points of the stock.
Characteristics of Candlestick
So
generally there can be bearish candles or bullish candles. Bearish candles are
one when the closing price is less than the opening price. This represents that
investors are bearish on stocks. And generally, investors sell their stock in
such conditions.
Bullish
candles are one when the opening price is more than the closing price. This
represents that investors are bullish on the stock. And generally, investors tend
to buy stocks in such conditions.
Bearish
candles are generally represented in red and bullish candles in green. Although
color coding may vary on the choice of trader. They may use some different
colors also.
And also if you will analyze the charts closely you will notice that there are varied candles of short and long lengths. Short candles simply represent that stock is not getting traded much, and generally, such stocks should not be dealt with. Similarly, large candles represent that stocks are getting actively traded and such stock can be analyzed with much more dexterity.
Conclusion
There
are various types of candlestick formations that enable an investor to devise a
trading strategy for a particular stock. And by and large candlesticks
formations are an effective tool to study stocks and to be able to trade wisely
and prudently.
But
remember if you are a long-term investor then you should never go long on any
stock basis technical analysis. For
long-term investors, both fundamental and technical analysis is equally
important.
Stock Analysis For Long Term Investment
Are you are someone who wants to
invest in countable blue chip company and then do nothing with the funds for at
least for 5-7 years.
If yes, then how to identify such company?
Broadly there are 2 methods by which you can filter out your
company from the rest:
1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Under this method the
company future dividends are discounted to arrive at current market
price. This method is only suitable when company is reliable and consistent
in paying its dividends. If price as
per DDM is greater than actual price, then stock is undervalued, one should buy
it in such case and vice versa.
2. Discounted Cash Flow Method (DCF): When company is irregular in paying its dividend, then this method is more suitable. Under this method all future cash flows of company is discounted at cost of capital to arrive at current value of company. For calculation of free cash Flow, take operating revenue figure and subtract all capital investments from it. If value of company calculated under DCF is less than actual value, then company is undervalued and it represents an opportunity to invest in it and vice versa.